The premise of democracy is that anyone can aspire to the top position in the country. The reality is that this is the exclusive preserve of those who can compete, strategise and commit the necessary effort to be in that position. 

More often than not, these people can make multiple runs and influence multiple elections. It is why, to fully understand 2027, we need to look back at previous elections to get a clearer sense of where we are coming from and where we are headed. 

It also helps us understand why the same names have dominated past elections. It is also why the frontrunners in 2023 are the same people Nigerians will choose from in 2027.

It was important to get rid of the military

When Nigerians took part in the 1999 elections, they might have worried that this would prove another false dawn. After all, 16 years ago, the military had returned because of how contentious the 1983 elections had been. 

The elections had also been held under the shadow of the June 12, 1993 elections, which M.K.O Abiola was later declared to have won, but was not allowed to govern after the Babangida regime aborted the elections.

The two candidates were well-known men from the South-West, in deference to the mandate Abiola never wielded. Olu Falae was a former finance minister and secretary to the government. But it was Olusegun Obasanjo, former military head of state (1976-79), who was elected in a wide show of support for his experience. It might have helped that, as a retired general, he could also help with safeguarding the new democratic experiment.

Obasanjo was re-elected in 2003 and led the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) into a strong position. It also marked the first time another former head of state and retired general, Muhammadu Buhari, ran for president. 

The final success of a storied Nigerian political family 

In 2007, Obasanjo was term-limited, and a bid to enable him to seek a third term was defeated in the National Assembly. Many governors sought to succeed him; Buhari also ran, but it was Katsina’s Governor Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, whose elder brother had also attempted a run in 1993, who emerged as president. Atiku Abubakar, who was Obasanjo’s vice-president, left the PDP to seek the presidency on a party propped up by outgoing Lagos governor, Bola Tinubu.

Yar’Adua’s running mate and vice-president was Bayelsa’s Governor Goodluck Jonathan. This pair showed a growing deference to governors with experience in choosing Nigeria’s leadership. It also showed that Nigeria could ensure a transition, even if the 2007 elections are widely acknowledged as the worst in Nigeria’s history. It helped that Yar’Adua agreed and sought to carry out reforms. Unfortunately, he would not live to see them because he died in May 2010 and was succeeded by Jonathan.

Goodluck, Jonathan

Jonathan assumed office with goodwill after a coalition of civil society, legislators and politicians had advocated for him to become acting president when Yar’Adua was unwell. When he got the full-time job, there was pressure on him not to run in 2011 because of a norm of alternating power between the north and south. Because Yar’Adua had not finished his term, it was expected that a northerner would get the job. 

However, Jonathan ran a campaign that appealed to his ability to engage with citizens online and offline. He defeated Atiku Abubakar in the PDP primary, Buhari in the general election, and resisted other candidacies, including Nuhu Ribadu, who ran on a party propped up by Bola Tinubu. 

Ahead of 2015, Jonathan attempted re-election. He also brought on board a two-term governor of Anambra, Peter Obi, as a Special Advisor and later SEC Chairman. The elections were dominated by insecurity and corruption. A coalition of opposition parties, led by Buhari, Tinubu and Atiku, formed the All Progressives Congress (APC). Buhari emerged as the nominee and defeated Jonathan to become president in 2015. 

From Buhari to Tinubu

APC presented a new governing coalition, facing the challenge of managing different ambitions. As a result, Atiku returned to the PDP, where he became its presidential nominee in 2019. His pick for running mate was Obi, whose experience helped him appeal to PDP’s stronghold in the South-East. Buhari was also able to make amends with Tinubu, who reportedly felt sidelined in the government, and worked towards re-election. 

Ahead of 2023, Tinubu was able to see off the vice-president, senate president, governors and ministers to become the APC presidential nominee. Atiku also saw off a former senate president and governors to become the PDP nominee. Obi left the PDP to join the Labour Party (LP) and made his campaign about reaching out to Nigerians online and offline. 

A contentious naira policy, inflation, and, notably, an unpopular and term-limited Buhari made this a very competitive election. Also important was the issue of ethnicity, since the three largest tribes were represented in the frontrunners, and religion because of APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket. The election was divided along these lines and was keenly followed.

In the end, Tinubu was elected with the lowest winning share of the vote since the return to democracy in 1999. Atiku and Obi petitioned the Supreme Court and lost again. Despite briefly regrouping under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Obi has since left to join the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and became their nominee. Atiku won the ADC ticket. Tinubu is seeking re-election.

The more things change…

The 2027 elections will likely mark the last dance for these three men, who have influenced presidential election outcomes to varying degrees for 27 years. Their ambition and drive have shaped movements and shown how divided a country can be over their support. 

Atiku will be 81 if he loses now and seeks to run again in 2031. Tinubu will be term-limited if he wins, but will also be 79 if he loses and has to run again in 2031. Obi has already pledged he will seek one term and not run in 2031 because power should return to the North.

The names that will dominate the next stage of Nigeria’s presidential elections are likely already in the space. We have definitely seen them, heard them, and probably even voted for or against them. And when the time comes to consider future elections, we will be able to look back and see how they played a part in previous ones.